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分析交通建设投入与经济发展的关系对科学制订发展和投资政策是十分必要的,然而目前还缺乏令人满意的理论和模型。本文对过去50年中国交通运输基础设施投资与经济发展关系进行定量分析和模型拟合,定量刻画了中国交通投资与国民经济的历史关系,对交通投资滞后效应进行了模型化分析。结果发现,中国交通投资对经济增长的促进作用,具有“厂”形规律,交通投资存在显著的滞后效应,其滞后期大约为5年,但滞后期时间趋于变短,强度趋于增大。
It is very necessary to analyze the relationship between investment in transportation construction and economic development in order to formulate the development and investment policies scientifically. However, there is still no satisfactory theory or model yet. This article quantitatively analyzes and models the relationship between China’s transportation infrastructure investment and economic development over the past 50 years, and quantitatively depicts the historical relationship between China’s transportation investment and the national economy, and makes a model analysis of the lag effect of transportation investment. The results show that the promotion effect of China’s transport investment on economic growth has the “factory” shape rule, and the transport investment has a significant lag effect. The lag period is about five years, but the lag time tends to be shorter and the intensity tends to increase .