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电力市场改革使发电投资面临了众多不确定性和潜在的市场化风险,这对发电投资的灵活性提出了较高的要求。考虑电力市场环境下发电投资灵活性的特点,提出了发电投资决策的灵活性分析框架,并以扩展的净现值作为灵活性策略评估指标,应用实物期权理论对投资策略进行评估。分别对乐观、一般和悲观的市场环境中燃料成本和电价等不确定性因素进行模拟,分析各投资阶段的项目收益波动情况。针对基本投资、扩容投资和放弃投资等3种灵活性策略,构建了市场环境下考虑灵活性措施的二叉树模型,并对灵活性策略的期权价值和扩展的净现值进行评估。以一个300MW的燃气蒸汽联合循环电厂容量投资为例,比较分析考虑灵活性措施前后的净现值,验证了该模型的有效性和合理性。
The reform of the electricity market has made power generation investments subject to numerous uncertainties and potential marketization risks. This poses high requirements for the flexibility of power generation investment. Considering the characteristics of power generation investment flexibility under the power market environment, a flexibility analysis framework for power generation investment decision-making is proposed, and the expanded net present value is used as a flexible strategy evaluation index. Real option theory is used to evaluate the investment strategy. Simulate the uncertainties in the optimistic, general, and pessimistic market environment, such as fuel costs and electricity prices, and analyze the fluctuation of project returns in each investment phase. Based on three flexible strategies, including basic investment, expansion investment, and abandonment of investment, a binary tree model considering flexibility measures in the market environment was constructed, and the option value and the extended net present value of the flexibility strategy were evaluated. Taking a 300 MW gas-fired steam combined cycle power plant capacity investment as an example, the net present value before and after considering flexibility measures is compared and analyzed to verify the validity and rationality of the model.