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作为一种慢性传染病,仅用HIV感染率难以对HIV流行水平作出准确判断,也难以评估预防干预措施的效果,而HIV新发感染率才是评估的金标准。目前传统估计HIV新发感染率的方法往往需要复杂的流行病学、统计学、数学模型和(或)实验室技术,难以在现场快速实施,也不利于基层工作人员使用。本文从发展背景、具体使用方法、国外实例等方面介绍一种用小年龄组男男性行为(MSM)的HIV感染率估计MSM人群HIV新发感染率的方法 ,可在没有相应流行病学和实验室技术资源的情况下,借助于已经收集的哨点监测或专题调查研究资料,用于基层现场快速评估,但应注意与当地其他相关资料进行比对。本文以MSM为例介绍了此种方法 ,在有比较充分的行为学资料的情况下,亦可适用于其他高危险行为人群。
As a chronic infectious disease, it is difficult to make accurate judgment on HIV prevalence only by the HIV infection rate, and it is difficult to evaluate the effect of preventive interventions. The new HIV infection rate is the gold standard for assessment. At present, the traditional methods of estimating the new HIV infection rate often require complicated epidemiological, statistical, mathematical models and / or laboratory techniques, which are hard to be implemented in the field quickly and not conducive to the use of grassroots staff. This article presents a method to estimate the new HIV infection rate in MSM population from the HIV infection rate of MSM in the younger age group from the aspects of development background, specific usage and foreign examples. Without relevant epidemiology and experiment In the case of technical resources, the information collected from the sentinel surveillance or thematic investigation and research is used for the rapid assessment of the grassroots site, but should be compared with other relevant local materials. In this paper, MSM as an example to introduce this method, in the case of adequate behavioral information, but also can be applied to other high-risk behavioral groups.