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文章引入P.Krugman的三元悖论模型,建立货币政策独立—汇率稳定—金融市场开放的框架,采用新兴市场国家14国面板数据分析宏观经济政策的选择对离岸服务外包发展的影响,结论如下:(1)总体新兴市场国家的独立货币政策对离岸服务外包收入额增长及波动性均无显著影响,但是亚洲新兴市场国家该指标影响显著为正;(2)浮动汇率制对离岸服务外包收入额增长有积极影响,但同时也增加了收入额异常波动性;(3)资本完全流动对新兴市场国家的离岸服务外包收入额增长没有影响或有负面影响,且会引发收入额的异常波动性;(4)中国维持独立货币政策,同时稳健实施浮动汇率制和逐步开放资本流动,将对离岸服务外包收入额增长产生极大的促进作用。
This paper introduces P.Krugman’s model of ternary paradox and establishes the framework of monetary policy independence-exchange rate stability-the opening up of financial markets. It analyzes the influence of macroeconomic policy choices on the development of offshore service outsourcing by using panel data of 14 countries in emerging market countries. As follows: (1) Independent monetary policy in the overall emerging market countries had no significant effect on the growth of offshore service outsourcing revenue and its volatility, but the impact of this indicator in Asian emerging market countries was significantly positive; (2) The increase of service outsourcing revenue has a positive impact, but it also increases the abnormal fluctuation of income. (3) The complete capital flow has no or negative impact on the growth of offshore service outsourcing revenue in emerging market countries, and will lead to revenue (4) China’s independent monetary policy, while steadily implementing the floating exchange rate system and gradually opening up capital flows, will greatly boost the growth of offshore service outsourcing revenue.