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本文在对我国多年来伤亡事故统计分析基础上,探讨了伤亡事故高发原因和近期发展态势,提出了影响伤亡事故发生的五个基本因素:经济发展水平、产业结构变化、总体经济规模、经济增长速度和国家干预措施。作者认为在2004年以后几年内,伤亡事故总量下降的可能性较小,其中交通和矿山企业的伤亡人数可能呈上升趋势。由于经济增长速度对事故发生影响显著,为减少伤亡事故风险,我国2004年GDP 指数不宜超过8%。建议以强化法治作为安全生产最主要的国家干预方法。
Based on the statistical analysis of many years of casualties in our country, this paper explores the causes of the high incidence of casualties and the recent developments. It puts forward five basic factors that affect the occurrence of casualties: the level of economic development, changes in industrial structure, the overall economic scale, economic growth Speed and national interventions. The author believes that in the years after 2004, the total amount of casualty accidents is unlikely to decline. Among them, the casualties of traffic and mining enterprises may be on the rise. Since the rate of economic growth has a significant impact on the accident, in order to reduce the risk of casualty accidents, China’s GDP index in 2004 should not exceed 8%. It is suggested to strengthen the rule of law as the most important national intervention in production safety.