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利用1998-2014年我国31个省级行政区的面板数据,从经济发展方式的角度,实证分析了税制结构与政府规模的关系。研究发现:(1)在地方政府投资主导的经济发展方式影响下,间接税为主的税制结构能更好地满足地方利益最大化的诉求,致使政府规模膨胀;(2)在间接税为主的税制结构中,相对于企业效益好坏,企业收入规模更能满足地方政府的利益诉求,企业收入而不是企业利润可以强化以间接税为主的税制结构对政府规模膨胀的刺激作用,地方政府可能偏好企业营收规模而非企业利润。因此,应该优化税制结构,提高直接税比重,降低间接税比重。
Using the panel data of 31 provinces in our country from 1998 to 2014, the paper analyzes the relationship between tax structure and government scale from the perspective of economic development mode. The results show that: (1) under the influence of the economic development mode dominated by the local government investment, the indirect tax-based tax structure can better meet the demand of local interest maximization, resulting in the expansion of the government scale; (2) In the indirect tax-based tax system Structure, relative to the effectiveness of the enterprise, the scale of corporate income to better meet the interests of local government appeal, corporate income rather than corporate profits can strengthen the indirect tax-based tax structure to stimulate the government’s scale, the local government may prefer business Revenue scale rather than corporate profits. Therefore, the tax structure should be optimized, the proportion of direct tax should be raised and the proportion of indirect tax should be reduced.