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基于青海省东部农业区1961—2013年气象数据、春小麦生育期资料和PenmanMonteith模型、敏感系数法,探讨了气候变暖背景下高原地区春小麦不同生育期降水盈亏变化特征及其对平均气温、相对湿度、平均风速和日照时数的敏感性。结果表明:各生育期春小麦降水盈亏量在1988年发生了突变;播种-出苗期和出苗-拔节期内降水盈亏量在贵德-尖扎-循化一线有所加剧,拔节-抽穗期内同仁-化隆-民和降水盈亏程度加重,是变化最为剧烈的地区,抽穗-乳熟期和乳熟-成熟期降水盈亏有所缓解;全生育期降水盈亏量对日照时数最为敏感,对平均气温的正敏感区分布在湟水河河谷地带,对其他3要素的正敏感区主要分布在西北部。研究结果可以为水资源管理和灌溉定额制定提供指导。
Based on the meteorological data from 1961 to 2013, spring wheat growth period and Penman Monteith model and sensitivity coefficient method in the eastern agricultural area of Qinghai Province, this paper discussed the characteristics of fluctuating profit and loss of spring wheat at different growth stages and their effects on the average temperature, relative humidity , Average wind speed and sunshine hours sensitivity. The results showed that the amount of profit and loss of spring wheat in each growth period had a mutation in 1988, and the amount of profit and loss of precipitation in the sowing-emergence and emergence-jointing stages had been aggravated in the Guiding-Jianzha-Xunhua line, - Hualong - Manchurian precipitation and increased profits and losses, is the most dramatic changes in the region, heading - milky and milky - ripening precipitation loss has eased; during the whole growth period of precipitation is the most sensitive to sunshine hours, the average Positive sense of temperature is located in the Huang River Valley, positive for the other three elements are mainly located in the northwest. The findings provide guidance for water management and irrigation quota development.