论文部分内容阅读
目的分析1995-2013年四川省医疗卫生系统卫生技术人员数并预测2014-2020年卫生技术人员需求量,从而为四川省核应急医疗卫生人力资源的有效合理调配提供参考依据。方法从四川省卫生统计年鉴、四川卫生年鉴、四川省统计局统计公报中选取1995-2013年四川省医疗卫生系统卫生技术人员数,并运用ARIMA(1,2,1)模型对其进行分析及预测。结果 2014-2020年四川省医疗卫生技术人员数呈平稳的上升趋势,到2020年卫生技术人员需求量增至64.97万人。结论 ARIMA模型适用于卫生技术人员需求量的预测,未来四川省应加大对医疗卫生系统卫生技术人员的培养及引进力度,以保证核应急卫生人力资源的有效合理调配并提高核事故医学应急处置能力。
Objective To analyze the number of health technicians in the medical and health system in Sichuan Province from 1995 to 2013 and predict the demand of health technicians in 2014-2020 so as to provide a reference for the effective and rational allocation of nuclear emergency medical and health personnel resources in Sichuan Province. Methods From 1995 to 2013, the number of health technicians in the medical and health system in Sichuan Province was selected from the Sichuan Provincial Health Statistical Yearbook, the Sichuan Health Yearbook and the Statistical Bulletin of the Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics. The ARIMA (1,2,1) model was used to analyze the data. prediction. Results The number of medical and health technicians in Sichuan Province showed a steady upward trend from 2014 to 2020, increasing the demand for health technicians to 649,700 by 2020. Conclusions The ARIMA model is suitable for the prediction of the demand of health technicians. In the future, Sichuan Province should increase the training and introduction of health technicians in the medical and health system in order to ensure the effective and rational deployment of nuclear emergency medical and human resources and to improve the medical emergency treatment of nuclear accidents ability.