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基于南昌市1951~2015年逐月降水和平均气温数据,借助不均匀系数、集中度分析降水年内分配特征,采用5年滑动均值法、Mann-Kendall分析法、Morlet小波变换法及R/S分析法等探讨了降水量和气温的趋势性、突变性和周期性,并预测了序列未来的演变趋势。结果表明,南昌市年降水量年内呈单峰分布,最大降水量出现在5月30日,总体呈不显著增加变化,1955、1992、2000年发生突变,存在22年的主周期及4年的次周期,降水未来将持续增加;南昌市年内温差大,月平均气温极值比为5.57,年平均气温总体呈显著上升变化,在1997年发生突变,存在23年的主周期及17、4年的次周期,年平均气温未来将呈继续显著上升变化趋势。
Based on the monthly precipitation and average temperature data from 1951 to 2015 in Nanchang, the annual distribution characteristics of precipitation were analyzed with the aid of non-uniform coefficient. The five-year moving average method, Mann-Kendall analysis, Morlet wavelet transform and R / S analysis Law et al. Discussed the trend, mutation and periodicity of precipitation and temperature, and predicted the future trend of sequence evolution. The results showed that the annual precipitation in Nanchang was unimodal in the year, with the maximum precipitation occurring on May 30, showing no significant increase in general, with a mutation in 1955, 1992 and 2000 with 22-year main period and 4-year In the second cycle, precipitation will continue to increase in the future. Nanchang City has a large temperature difference during the year with a monthly mean temperature extrema ratio of 5.57. The annual average temperature shows a marked increase and a sudden change in 1997 with a 23-year main cycle and 17,4 years Of the second cycle, the annual average temperature will continue to significantly increase the trend of change.