两位Gartner Group的分析家指出,在未来几年,移动用户的连接技术不会有显著改进。在一次研讨会上,Gartner Group副总裁兼远程连接部研究主任John Girard提出,在今后五年里,使用模拟调制解调器进行简单的拨号连接仍然是接入Internet和企业内部网中的主要方式。 Girard认为,虽然对它又爱又恨,但是今后五年里,用户在世界各地工作的唯一工具就是模拟调制解调器。目前,电缆调制解调器在美国正春风得意,但是由于安装的限制、大多定位于消费者的服务类型以及不能提供满足商业需要的服务保证,它的发展速度会受到一定的限制。 Girard认为无线和数字用户专线服务还在为协议标准而纠缠不清。大部分的无线服务目前只用于在近距离传送少量突发式数据,在2001年前,不可能进行持续的连接。而DSL即使在美国,应用也并不是非常广泛。在其它地区,Telecoms Two Gartner Group analysts pointed out that in the next few years, mobile users will not significantly improve the connection technology. At a seminar, John Girard, vice president and director of remote connectivity research at the Gartner Group, suggested that using a dial-up modem for simple dial-up connections will remain the primary means of accessing the Internet and the corporate intranet over the next five years. Girard believes that, while loving and hating it, the only tool users can use to work around the world over the next five years is analogue modems. At present, cable modems are brisk in the United States, but due to installation restrictions, most of which are oriented towards the types of consumers’ services and can not provide service guarantees that meet the needs of the business, the speed of their development will be limited. Girard believes wireless and digital subscriber line services are still tangled up with protocol standards. Most wireless services are currently only used to deliver small amounts of bursty data at close range and by 2001 it would not be possible to make persistent connections. And even in the United States DSL, the application is not very extensive. Elsewhere, Telecoms