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在阐述国内外学者相关研究现状的基础上建立了VAR模型,并利用脉冲响应函数分析了贷款利率和货币供给量变化对“丝绸之路经济带”西北五省城市房价的动态影响。结果表明:在短期内提高贷款利率(即实行紧缩货币政策)会对西北五省省会城市房价产生显著影响;在长期内利率政策变化对西北五省省会城市房价的影响并不显著;不论是短期内还是长期内货币供给量变化对西北五省省会城市房价都会产生显著的正向影响。最后提出了相关政策建议。
Based on expatiating on the current situation of domestic and foreign scholars, a VAR model is established and the impulse response function is used to analyze the dynamic influence of the change of loan interest rate and money supply on the city house prices in the “Silk Road Economic Belt” in the five northwestern provinces. The results show that raising the lending rate in a short period of time (that is, implementing a tight monetary policy) will have a significant impact on housing prices in the capital cities of the five northwestern provinces. In the long term, the impact of changes in interest rate policy on housing prices in the capital cities of the five northwestern provinces is insignificant; Within the long-term changes in the money supply will have a significant positive impact on housing prices in the capital cities of the five northwestern provinces. Finally, put forward the relevant policy recommendations.