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基于重庆市2008年第17周~2011年第52周手足口病分年龄组的数据,分析了重庆市手足口病的季节性模式及各年龄所占比例,应用催化模型、时间序列易感者-感染者-康复者(time series susceptible infected recovered,TSIR)模型分别估计了重庆市手足口病不同年龄的感染力及随时间变化的人群接触率,研究了重庆市手足口病感染的高风险年龄以及手足口病接触率的季节性.结果表明,重庆市手足口病的发病呈现春季和冬季的两个高峰:5~6月大高峰,11~12月小高峰;患者主要集中在5岁以下儿童,2岁儿童患病的最多;不同年龄组手足口病的感染力不同:3~4岁年龄组感染力最高,因此3~4岁儿童被手足口病传染的风险最大;在成人中感染力在35~39岁较高;人群接触率呈现季节性:寒暑假期间接触率增加.
Based on the data of Chongqing Municipality from the 17th week of 2008 to the 52nd week of 2011, the seasonal patterns of hand, foot and mouth disease in Chongqing and the proportions of all ages were analyzed. Using the model of catalysis, time-series susceptible - infection-recovery-time (TSIR) model were used to estimate the infectivity of hand-foot-mouth disease in Chongqing at different ages and the population contact rate with time. The high-risk age of hand-foot-mouth disease in Chongqing And the seasonality of hand-foot-mouth disease.The results showed that the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Chongqing showed two peaks in spring and winter: the peak from May to June and the peak from November to December; the patients mainly concentrated in the age of 5 years The prevalence of hand, foot and mouth disease in different age groups was the highest among children and 2-year-old children. The highest infectivity was found in the age group of 3 to 4 years old, so children aged 3 to 4 had the highest risk of hand-foot-mouth disease. In adults, The force is higher at 35-39 years old; the contact rate of the population shows a seasonal pattern: the contact rate increases during winter and summer vacations.