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本文提出了从危机演化时间节点、演化阶段和演化成因等多维度开展农村突发性公共危机演化机理研究的分析框架。以“黄浦江浮死猪”事件为案例,对农村突发性公共危机演化机理及演变时间节点进行了案例分析。研究发现,媒体信息传播、政府防控管制、消费者风险感知、养殖户危机响应等是突发性动物疫情公共危机演化机理形成的重要原因。建议针对不同类型农村突发性公共危机建立危机演化数据观测点开展典型性农村突发公共危机演化机理及演变时间节点模拟研究,创新危机治理理念并发挥各利益相关者参与危机管控的积极性,增强政府在关键时间节点上管控危机的能力。
This paper presents an analytical framework for studying the evolving mechanism of public emergency in rural areas from multiple dimensions, such as the node of crisis evolution time, evolution stage and evolution cause. In the case of “floating pigs on Huangpu River” as an example, a case analysis is made on the evolution mechanism and evolution time nodes of rural public emergency. The study found that the media dissemination of information, government control and prevention, consumer risk perception, crisis response of farmers and other emergencies is an important reason for the evolution of public crisis crisis mechanism. It is suggested that a crisis-prone data observation point should be set up for crisis-prone public crises in different types of rural areas to carry out typical rural crisis-evolving mechanisms and evolution time nodes simulation research, innovate the concept of crisis management and give full play to the enthusiasm of all stakeholders in crisis management and control, Government’s ability to manage crises at critical junctures.