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为了更好地认识梯级电站的水库在防洪调度中存在的预测和计算偏差问题,本文以雅砻江下游梯级电站汛期一次实际洪水调度过程为例,分析偏差产生的起因、防洪调度的难点及带来的电站运行风险。根据洪水形成过程和实际径流环境,得出防洪调度的难点是上游来水、区间流量和区间传播时间三个预测量的确定,并给出控制措施建议,供相关运维人员借鉴参考。
In order to better understand the prediction and calculation deviation of reservoir in flood control operation of cascade hydropower station, this paper takes an actual flood dispatching process in the downstream of Yalong River cascade hydropower station as an example to analyze the cause of deviation, the difficulty of flood control dispatch, Power plant operation risk. According to the process of flood formation and the actual runoff environment, it is concluded that the difficulties of flood control dispatching are the determination of three predictions of upstream flow, interval flow and interval propagation time, and give the control measures suggestions for relevant operation and maintenance personnel for reference.