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本文从历史文献中搜集有关长江三角洲的气候、物候、太阳黑子以及冷暖水旱自然灾害资料3824条,对历史时期长江三角洲的气候变迁,进行系统分析。自东周至清末,三角洲的温度变迁,可分三个温暖期与三个寒冷期,冷暖期相间。据此演变规律,推断二十世纪气温回升阶段不会太久,到二十一世纪中期以后,气候可能复趋寒冷。自西汉至清末,三角洲的降水变迁,可分三个旱年阶段与三个水年阶段,水旱年阶段相间。据此演变规律,推断到二十一世纪,气候可能复趋干旱。历史时期三角洲气候变迁的情况,不仅与全国气候变迁情况基本一致,而且具有世界性。太阳活动是大气环流的主要动力,活动的强弱,主宰气候的变迁。故本文据历史时期太阳黑子的时间分布,阐明三角洲气候变迁的基本原因。
In this paper, we collect 3824 natural and climate-related data on climate, phenology, sunspots, cold, floods and droughts in the Yangtze River Delta from historical documents, and systematically analyze the climate change in the Yangtze River Delta during the historical period. From the Eastern Zhou Dynasty to the late Qing Dynasty, the delta temperature changes can be divided into three warm periods and three cold periods, warm and cold period. According to this law of evolution, we can conclude that the temperature rise in the 20th century will not take too long. After the middle of the 21st century, the climate may become increasingly cold. From the Western Han Dynasty to the late Qing Dynasty, the change of precipitation in the delta can be divided into three dry years and three water years, and the dry and wet years. According to the law of evolution, we can conclude that the climate may be more droughth by the 21st century. The climate change in the delta during the historical period has not only been basically in line with the national climate change but also has a worldwide dimension. Solar activity is the main driving force of the atmospheric circulation, the strength of activities, dominate the changing climate. Therefore, according to the historical distribution of sunspot time, this paper illustrates the basic causes of climate change in the delta.