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目的:了解杭州市萧山区梅毒流行病学特征和发病趋势,为制定防制策略提供依据。方法:采用描述流行病学方法对萧山区2004-2013年梅毒发病资料进行三间分布分析;应用回顾性时空重排扫描统计量探测高发聚集区;构建SARIMA模型进行趋势预测。结果:萧山区梅毒发病率从2004年的18.52/10万上升至2013年的58.85/10万,呈明显上升趋势。男女发病比为0.72∶1,主要集中在20~39岁年龄段,职业以农民居多。回顾性时空聚集分析确定了5个可能的梅毒发病聚集区域。模型为SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12。结论:萧山区(特别是中部地区)梅毒的流行情况较为严重,应采取综合性防制措施,有效控制梅毒流行。
OBJECTIVE: To understand the epidemiological characteristics and trend of syphilis in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City, and to provide the basis for making prevention and control strategies. Methods: Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the distribution of syphilis data from 2004 to 2013 in Xiaoshan District. Retrospective spatial-temporal rearrangement scans were used to detect the high-incidence aggregation area. SARIMA model was constructed for trend prediction. Results: The incidence of syphilis in Xiaoshan District rose from 18.52 / 100000 in 2004 to 58.85 / 100000 in 2013, showing a clear upward trend. Male to female incidence ratio of 0.72: 1, mainly concentrated in the 20 to 39 age group, mostly farmers to occupations. Retrospective analysis of spatiotemporal aggregation identified five possible regions of syphilis incidence. The model is SARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1) 12. Conclusion: The prevalence of syphilis in Xiaoshan District (especially in the central region) is more serious. Comprehensive prevention and control measures should be taken to effectively control syphilis epidemics.