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以系统动力学方法构建由制造商、零售商和第三方回收商组成的三级闭环供应链模型,考虑影响回收商行为的环境政策指数及回收延迟,并运用Vensim软件进行仿真实验。通过计算各级成员订货率的牛鞭效应,研究回收商行为对整个闭环供应链产生的影响。研究表明:(1)环境政策指数越大,即回收商回收比例越大,对正向供应链零售商订货率牛鞭效应的减弱效果越好,但会越发加强逆向供应链牛鞭效应;(2)回收商回收延迟越小,对正向供应链牛鞭效应的减弱效果越好;回收延迟增大,可以减弱逆向供应链牛鞭效应;(3)环境政策指数较回收延迟对各级成员订货率牛鞭效应的影响更显著。
A three-level closed-loop supply chain model consisting of manufacturers, retailers and third-party recyclers was constructed by using the method of system dynamics. The environmental policy index and recovery delay that affected the recyclers’ behavior were considered. Vensim software was used to carry out simulation experiments. By calculating the bullwhip effect of ordering rates at all levels, this paper studies the impact of recyclers on the entire closed-loop supply chain. The results show that: (1) The larger the environmental policy index is, the greater the recovery ratio of recyclers is. The weaker the bullwhip effect on the ordering rate of the forward supply chain retailers is, but the more the bullwhip effect of the reverse supply chain is strengthened. 2) the smaller the recovery delay of recyclers, the weaker the bullwhip effect of the positive supply chain is; the longer the recovery delay can reduce the bullwhip effect of the reverse supply chain; (3) The effect of the bullwhip effect at the ordering rate is more pronounced.