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2011年第1季度天然橡胶市场呈冲高回落的走势,利空因素被明显放大,供应偏紧的基本面因素被提前炒作,总体呈现内弱外强的格局。虽然前期已经对利空因素有所消化,但是日本强震的突发事件、国内持续出台的货币调控政策,加上国际市场开始对欧美收紧流动性的预期的担忧,近期市场仍显得压力重重。从总体来看,4月的天然橡胶市场仍存在震荡触底的可能,但前期沪胶指数累计跌幅较大,而且供应紧俏的局面还没有扭转,沪胶指数再度大幅杀跌的可能性不大,下方30000元整数关支撑较强,即便有反弹,上方38000元的压力也较大。
The first quarter of 2011, the natural rubber market showed a downward trend, negative factors have been significantly enlarged, tight supply fundamentals have been speculation in advance, showing the overall pattern of weak inside out. Although the negative factors have already been digested in the previous period, the unexpected shocks caused by the strong earthquake in Japan and the continuous monetary control policies in the Mainland, together with the worries that the international market has started to tighten liquidity expectations in Europe and the United States, are still under pressure in the near future. Overall, the natural rubber market in April there is still the possibility of shock bottomed out, but the previous Hujiao index cumulative decline, and the tight supply situation has not reversed, the possibility of Hujiao index sharp sell-off again , Below the 30,000 integer off strong support, even if there is a rebound, the pressure above the 38,000 yuan is also larger.