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为了研究世界经济如何影响国际原油价格,以协整理论为基础,通过建立误差修正模型分析了国际原油实际价格与世界经济、世界原油产量以及OECD石油库存的关系.特别地,利用Kilian经济指数来反映全球经济状况.研究结果表明:国际原油实际价格,OECD石油库存和Kilian经济指数存在着长期协整关系.在长期,Kilian经济指数对原油实际价格有显著影响,弹性大约为2.05%.随着全球经济扩张以及OECD石油库存下滑,即相对于长期均衡的负向离差加大,原油实际价格上升,反之油价下降.短期内世界经济,OECD石油库存和世界原油产量变动是原油实际价格变动的Granger原因.
In order to study how the world economy affects the international crude oil price, the relationship between the international crude oil actual price and the world economy, the world crude oil output and the OECD oil inventory is analyzed based on the cointegration theory by establishing the error correction model .In particular, by using the Kilian economic index Reflecting the global economic conditions.The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the international crude oil actual price, the OECD oil inventory and the Kilian economic index.In the long run, the Kilian economic index has a significant effect on the actual price of crude oil, with an elasticity of about 2.05% Global economic expansion and OECD oil inventories decline, that is, negative long-term deviation relative to the long-term equilibrium increased, the actual price of crude oil rose, while the oil price down the short-term world economy, OECD oil inventories and world crude oil output changes is the actual price of crude oil changes Granger reason.