论文部分内容阅读
为解决目前广泛使用的模糊事故树分析模型缺乏随机性,同时在参与评判的专家人数多时模型量化过程复杂、计算量大的问题,将蒙特卡罗模拟法引入模糊事故树分析模型中,并以在某海上事故调查中发现的一个包含3个基本事件的最小割集为例进行量化分析.结果表明,蒙特卡罗模拟法弥补了模糊事故树分析模型缺乏对事故发生随机性分析的缺点,同时实现了在参与评判的专家人数众多情况下简化量化计算过程的目的.算例结果表明,该模型具有实用性和可操作性.
In order to solve the problem that the fuzzy accident tree analysis model widely used nowadays is lack of randomness, and the number of experts participating in the judgment is large, the process of quantification of the model is complicated and the calculation is heavy. The Monte Carlo simulation method is introduced into the fuzzy fault tree analysis model. The result of a quantitative analysis of a minimal cut set including three basic events found in a survey of marine accidents shows that the Monte Carlo simulation method makes up for the lack of analysis of the fuzzy accident tree model for the random analysis of accidents, The purpose of simplifying the process of quantification is achieved with a large number of experts involved in the evaluation.Examples show that the model has practicality and operability.