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为了分析沥青路面使用性能的发展变化趋势,得出影响沥青路面使用性能的主要因素及规律。根据多种预测模型对沥青路面使用性能指数的预测结果,利用熵权组合预测理论对预测结果进行综合,得到路面使用性能的变化趋势。同时,利用变精度粗糙模糊集构建沥青路面使用性能评价模糊决策体系,对使用性能与其影响因素的关系进行概率决策分析,得到了概率决策规则。结果表明:水土、材料及施工是影响沥青路面使用性能的主要影响因素,而得到的概率决策规则的置信度也较高。
In order to analyze the development trend of asphalt pavement performance, the main factors and rules affecting the performance of asphalt pavement are obtained. According to the prediction results of asphalt pavement performance index based on many prediction models, the prediction results are integrated by using the theory of entropy weight combination forecast, and the changing trend of pavement performance is obtained. At the same time, the fuzzy decision-making system of asphalt pavement performance evaluation is constructed by using variable precision rough fuzzy sets, and the probability decision analysis is made on the relationship between the performance and its influencing factors. The probability decision rules are obtained. The results show that soil and water, materials and construction are the main factors affecting the performance of asphalt pavement, and the confidence of the probability decision rules obtained is also high.