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在水资源总量约束下,提高水资源利用效率是保障缺水地区城镇化、工业化与经济社会发展的必然途径。论文以河南省地级市2000—2013年面板数据为基础,运用空间计量模型,从水资源禀赋、水资源开发利用程度、经济发展水平、城镇化水平、产业结构、用水结构、农业现代化水平、信息化水平等方面入手,对河南省用水效率的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:1)河南省地级市用水效率存在不可忽视的空间自相关特征,时空固定形式下的空间杜宾模型可以实现其最优模拟;2)河南省各地级市用水效率明显受邻近地级市用水效率的影响,其空间溢出弹性系数达到0.31;3)水资源禀赋、水资源开发利用程度对河南省各地级市用水效率产生显著的负向影响,但其空间溢出效应不明显;4)经济发展水平、城镇化发展水平、产业结构优化水平对河南省各地级市用水效率产生显著的正向影响,而且除工业化水平外,空间溢出效应十分明显;5)用水结构变化、农业现代化、信息化水平与河南省用水效率的相关关系总体不明显,河南省水资源可持续利用与全国“四化”协调发展示范区建设的关系有待进一步协调。
Under the constraint of the total amount of water resources, improving water use efficiency is the inevitable way to ensure the urbanization, industrialization and economic and social development in water-scarce areas. Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities of Henan Province from 2000 to 2013, this dissertation uses the spatial econometric model, from the aspects of water resources endowment, degree of development and utilization of water resources, level of economic development, level of urbanization, industrial structure, water use structure, level of agricultural modernization, Information level and so on, to analyze the influential factors of water use efficiency in Henan Province. The results show that: 1) The spatial autocorrelation characteristics of water use efficiency in prefecture-level cities in Henan Province can not be ignored; and the spatial Dobbin model in the form of space-time fixed can achieve the optimal simulation; 2) The spatial elasticity of water consumption reaches 0.31; 3) the endowment of water resources and the degree of development and utilization of water resources have a significant negative impact on the water use efficiency of all prefecture-level cities in Henan Province, but the spatial spillover effect is not obvious; 4 ) The level of economic development, the level of urbanization development and the level of industrial structure optimization have a significant positive impact on the water use efficiency of all prefecture-level cities in Henan Province. Besides the industrialization level, the spillover effect is obvious. 5) The structural changes of water use, agricultural modernization, The relationship between the informatization level and the water use efficiency in Henan Province is not obvious. The relationship between the sustainable use of water resources in Henan Province and the coordinated development demonstration zone construction of the national “Four Modernizations” needs to be further coordinated.