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通过对当前煤炭产能过剩的多方压力和煤炭产业所面临的“双约束”条件的分析引出煤炭产能调控概念,并在分析煤炭产业可持续发展的基础上,提出利用宏观经济政策、煤炭供应链管理及煤炭系统总效率等手段对我国煤炭产能实行综合调控。借助GDP发展和煤炭产能的关系预测煤炭产能的置信区间,并采用煤炭供应链管理相关数学模型及煤炭系统总效率公式对煤炭产能进一步定量优化计算,以达到煤炭产能调控的“双目标”发展模式,为我国煤炭工业的可持续发展提供支持与帮助。
Based on the analysis of the “double constraints” conditions that the coal industry now faces with the multi-pressure of the current coal overcapacity and the analysis of the regulation of the coal production capacity, and on the basis of analyzing the sustainable development of the coal industry, the paper proposes that the macroeconomic policy, the coal supply Chain management and total efficiency of the coal system and other means to implement comprehensive control of China’s coal production capacity. With the help of the relationship between GDP development and coal production capacity, we can predict the confidence interval of coal production capacity and use coal supply chain management mathematical model and coal system total efficiency formula to further quantify and optimize the coal production capacity so as to achieve the “double target” Development mode, provide support and help for the sustainable development of China’s coal industry.