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国内外利率环境变化,人民币温和升息成为可能;温和升息不会改变初期牛市的发展趋势;升息加深股市结构调整,利率敏感性行业投资风险上升;改变行业股票的成本收益预期,比较成本收益优势上升的行业公司将成为新的领涨板块,除电力能源、公用事业、电讯等行业外,今年以来利润继续保持较快增长势头的农副食品加工、木材加工、造纸,通用设备和专用设备制造业在股市中的行业地位也将逐步突出。公路、港口、机场、航空等防御性品种以及食品、医药等非周期性行业也会被相继看好。钢铁、房地产行业内有相当实力的业内优势企业,只要不是扩张过度,经过短暂的调整,其投资价值可能更加相对突出。
Interest rate environment changes at home and abroad, RMB moderate interest rate increase possible; a moderate rate hike will not change the trend of the early bull market; interest rate deepen the adjustment of the stock market, interest rate-sensitive industries investment risk; change the industry’s stock cost-benefit expectations, more cost Industry companies with rising edge in earnings growth will be the new leader in agro-food processing, wood processing, paper making, general equipment and special equipment that will continue to enjoy rapid growth in profit this year, in addition to power, energy, utilities, telecommunications and other industries Equipment manufacturing industry in the stock market will gradually highlight the status. Defensive breeds such as roads, ports, airports and aviation as well as non-cyclical industries such as food and medicine will also be followed one after another. In the steel and real estate industries, there is a considerable strength in the industry leading enterprises, as long as it is not over-expansion, after a short adjustment, its investment value may be more prominent.