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准确把握房价与地价关系是政府宏观调控房地产市场的基础。本文在归纳概括已有研究的基础上,对影响房价与地价的市场属性、预期因素进行深入分析,提出土地市场与住房市场的价格信号传导机制假说,构建了一个解释房价与地价关系的机理模型,即开发商根据住房销售市场状况及未来的房地产开发价值的预期,调整其在土地出让市场上的竞价行为;当期土地市场上的变化又会引起该地块开发后房地产价格及该地块所在区域内房价的变动。在此基础上,本文利用全国和部分城市2002年-2009年普通住宅销售指数与土地交易价格指数的季度数据,进行房价与地价的Granger因果关系检验。全国层面的数据检验结果显示:短期内,房价与地价有双向影响,房价对地价影响更为显著;长期内,房价是地价的Granger因,而不是相反。总之,在不完全竞争市场中,地价作为房价成本构成之一,是房价上涨的一个重要但非决定性因素;而以土地为生产要素的引致需求决定着地价受预期房价的影响更大。这一研究结论得到部分大中城市数据检验结果的支持,这说明本文所揭示的房价与地价关系是在一定范围内存在的。
Accurately grasp the relationship between house prices and land prices is the government’s macro-control real estate market. On the basis of summarizing and summarizing the existing research, this article makes an in-depth analysis of the market attributes and expected factors that affect the prices of houses and land, proposes the hypothesis of the price signal transmission mechanism in the land market and housing market, and constructs a mechanism model to explain the relationship between house prices and land prices , That is, the developer adjusts its bidding behavior in the land transfer market according to the expected status of the housing sales market and future real estate development value. The changes in the current land market will cause the price of the real estate after the development of the land and the price of the land Changes in housing prices in the region. On this basis, this paper tests the Granger causality test between house price and land price by using the quarterly data of general residential sales index and land transaction price index from 2002 to 2009 in some cities. National data test results show that: In the short term, housing prices and land prices have a two-way impact, the impact of housing prices on land more significant; in the long run, housing prices Granger land premium, rather than the opposite. In short, in an imperfectly competitive market, land prices, as one of the cost components of housing prices, are an important but not the decisive factor in the rise of housing prices. The demand induced by land as a factor of production determines that land prices are more affected by the expected housing prices. The conclusion of this research is supported by the results of data test in some cities, which shows that the relationship between house price and land price disclosed in this paper exists within a certain range.