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将1961年～2005年的可供我国净进口的谷物数量,按照每5年一个时段分组,构建5年为步长的5个灰色数列,采用DPS7.05软件建立灰色数列G(1,1)模型,预测2009年～2020年可供我国净进口的最大谷物数量;参照2004年～2007年的粮食需求状况,设定2009年～2015年的粮食需求水平为400kg/人、2016年～2020年为420kg/人,计算国内粮食消费需求总量;分析1961年～2005年国内粮食消费量构成,确定最小、最大谷物系数,计算国内粮食消费需求中的谷物消费需求总量,再计算国际粮食贸易市场允许我国净进口的谷物数量占国内粮食消费需求总量的比重,最后计算谷物自给率。结果表明,在不影响他国谷物进口和充分利用国际谷物贸易盈余的双重条件约束下,我国在2009年的谷物自给率不低于98%,2010年可能需要我国的谷物净出口,2012年～2014年不低于96%,2015年不低于97%,2016年、2019年～2020年不低于94%,2017年～2018年不低于97%。进一步提出粮食安全目标下的我国国际粮食贸易和耕地管理的政策性建议。
The number of grains available for China’s net import from 1961 to 2005 is grouped into 5 gray intervals of 5 years in a period of 5 years. The gray number G (1,1) is constructed by DPS7.05 software. Model to forecast the maximum cereal imports for China’s net imports from 2009 to 2020. With reference to the grain demand from 2004 to 2007, the grain demand level for 2009 ~ 2015 was set at 400 kg / person and from 2016 to 2020 For the 420kg / person, calculate the total amount of domestic grain consumption demand; analysis of the composition of domestic grain consumption from 1961 to 2005, determine the minimum and maximum grain coefficient, calculate the total grain consumption demand in domestic grain consumption demand, and then calculate the international grain trade Market allows China’s net imports of cereals accounted for the proportion of domestic grain consumption demand, the final calculation of grain self-sufficiency rate. The results show that under the double conditions of not affecting other countries’ cereal imports and making full use of the international grain trade surplus, China’s grain self-sufficiency rate in 2009 will be no less than 98%. In 2010, China may need net cereal exports. From 2012 to 2014 Not less than 96% in year, no less than 97% in 2015, not less than 94% in 2016, 2019 ~ 2020 and no less than 97% in 2017 ~ 2018. Further put forward the policy recommendations of China’s international grain trade and cultivated land management under the goal of food security.