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目的针对全国登革热疫情特征进行深入分析,对当前的登革热疫情风险评估提供依据。方法从我国法定传染病报告信息系统获取病例报告数据,对病例的时间和地区分布进行分析,并分析输入病例的来源国信息以及重点地区的输入病例和本地病例的时间分布情况。结果截至8月31日,2017年全国累计报告登革热病例1 468例,较2016年同期(831例)上升77%。其中本地病例980例,主要分布在云南省(589例)、浙江省(221例)、广东省(111例)、山东省(58例)和安徽省(1例)。输入病例488例,主要输入国为缅甸(137例)、马来西亚(61例)、泰国(54例)、越南(39例)和斯里兰卡(34例)。云南、广东、浙江和山东省在2017年报告的早期病例均为输入病例。云南省西双版纳州、德宏州和临沧市,浙江省杭州市,广东省广州市和山东省济宁市报告了本地暴发疫情。云南、海南、福建、广西、广东和浙江等高风险省份的布雷图指数大于安全阈值5。结论截至8月31日我国登革热疫情高于2016年同期,多点出现暴发,甚至扩展至北方省份(山东省济宁市),均为输入病例引发的本地传播。9月我国仍将处于疫情高峰,预计浙江、云南、广东、广西、海南省(自治区)登革热本地传播及暴发风险也将进一步增大。建议各地做好疫情应对工作,北方有伊蚊分布省份也应该重视登革热防控工作。
Objective To carry out in-depth analysis of the characteristics of dengue fever in the whole country and provide evidence for the current risk assessment of dengue fever. Methods Obtain the case report data from the report system of notifiable infectious diseases in our country, analyze the distribution of the time and area of the cases, and analyze the source country information of imported cases and the time distribution of imported cases and local cases in key areas. Results As of August 31, there were 1 468 cases of dengue fever in 2017, an increase of 77% over the same period of 2016 (831 cases). There were 980 local cases, mainly distributed in Yunnan Province (589 cases), Zhejiang Province (221 cases), Guangdong Province (111 cases), Shandong Province (58 cases) and Anhui Province (1 case). 488 cases were imported, with the main importing countries being Myanmar (137 cases), Malaysia (61 cases), Thailand (54 cases), Vietnam (39 cases) and Sri Lanka (34 cases). Early cases reported in 2017 in Yunnan, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Shandong provinces are all imported cases. Outbreaks were reported in Xishuangbanna Prefecture, Dehong Prefecture and Lincang City in Yunnan Province, Hangzhou City in Zhejiang Province, Guangzhou City in Guangdong Province and Jining City in Shandong Province. The Bretton index for high-risk provinces such as Yunnan, Hainan, Fujian, Guangxi, Guangdong and Zhejiang is greater than the safety threshold of 5. Conclusion As of August 31, the outbreak of dengue fever in China was higher than the same period in 2016, with more outbreaks and even spreading to the northern provinces (Jining City, Shandong Province), both of which were caused by imported cases. In September, China will still be at the peak of the epidemic. It is estimated that the risks of local spread and outbreak of dengue in Zhejiang, Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan (autonomous regions) are also expected to increase further. It is suggested that the epidemic situation should be well handled throughout the country. In the north, the provinces where Aedes mosquitoes are distributed should also pay attention to the prevention and control of dengue fever.