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展望1995年,我国食糖市场仍将货紧价扬,但价格涨幅将低于1994年,市场走势相对平稳。主要依据是:1、产量仍将下降。需求继续上升,产需缺口进一步扩大。据统计,1994年我国糖料春播面积2575万亩,比上年增长4.9%。但6月中旬以来,南北产糖区均遭到特大洪水的袭击,仅广西估计失收甘蔗500万吨左右。据此预测1994/1995年制糖期食糖产量仍将减产,据有关部门调查估算,将比上个制糖期减产20万吨左右,需求方面,由于我国经济持续高速增长。居民收人大幅度增加,食糖需求相应增加,预测1995年我国食糖需求在750万吨左右,产需缺口进一步扩大。2、食糖储备下降。1994年国家为平抑糖价动用了30万吨储备糖。在生产量下降、市场供给不足的情况下,国家储备难以恢复。3、食糖生产成本继续上升。我国农副产品已连续两年全面大幅度涨价,必将推动糖料价格再度上涨。1994年7月28日国家调整了1994/1995年制糖期
Looking forward to 1995, China’s sugar market will still be tight prices, but the price increase will be lower than in 1994, the market trend is relatively stable. The main basis is: 1, the output will decline. Demand continues to rise, further widening the gap between production and demand. According to statistics, in 1994, China’s spring sown area of sugar was 2575 mu, an increase of 4.9% over the previous year. However, since mid-June, both the North and South sugar producing areas have been hit by catastrophic floods. Only Guangxi is estimated to have lost about 5 million tons of sugarcane. Based on this, it is predicted that the output of sugar in the 1994/95 sugar-producing period will still decrease. According to the survey conducted by relevant departments, it will cut about 200,000 tons of sugar from the previous period. In terms of demand, due to the sustained and rapid economic growth in our country. Residents’ income increased substantially, and the demand for sugar increased correspondingly. It is predicted that in 1995, the demand for sugar in China will be about 7.5 million tons, and the gap in production and demand will be further widened. 2, the decline in sugar reserves. In 1994, the state used 300,000 tons of reserve sugar to stabilize the sugar price. In the case of a drop in production and a lack of market supply, the state’s reserves are hard to recover. 3, sugar production costs continue to rise. China’s agricultural and sideline products have substantially increased prices substantially for two consecutive years, which will surely promote the price of sugar materials to rise again. On July 28, 1994, the country adjusted its 1994/95 sugar-producing period