论文部分内容阅读
为了解决民航行业保障能力与发展需求之间的矛盾所带来的安全问题,在对民航行业进行系统分析的基础上,利用系统动力学方法建立了民航可持续安全发展决策流图。通过专家访谈和文献分析法构建了3种政策场景。利用Vensim软件对模型进行了仿真,结果表明:在保障能力不变的条件下,2015年将航班审批率降低0.3,可实现行业的安全目标,但航班量在2015—2025年发展十分缓慢;在发展水平不变的条件下,2015年将保障能力提高0.3,可在2021年实现行业的安全目标;在可持续发展的策略下,在2015—2018年将航班审批率降低0.3、2018年之后将航班审批率提高0.4,在2015年将保障能力提高0.2,可实现我国民航行业的可持续安全发展。
In order to solve the security problems brought by the contradiction between the security capability of the civil aviation industry and its development needs, this paper uses the system dynamics method to establish the decision-making flow chart of the sustainable development of civil aviation based on the systematic analysis of the civil aviation industry. Three kinds of policy scenes were constructed through expert interview and literature analysis. Vensim software is used to simulate the model. The results show that the safety approval rate of flight can be reduced by 0.3 in 2015 with the same guarantee ability, but the flight safety can be achieved in 2015-2025. At the same time, Under the same development level, the guarantee capability will be increased by 0.3 in 2015 and the industry’s safety goal will be achieved in 2021. Under the strategy of sustainable development, the flight approval rate will be reduced by 0.3 in 2015-2018, and after 2018 Flight approval rate increased by 0.4, will increase the security capability by 0.2 in 2015, China’s civil aviation industry can achieve sustainable and safe development.