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利用局面转移模型能够刻画我国物价及其影响因素的波动特征,并且可以对比不同局面下各因素对物价波动影响的变动情况。从研究结果上看,我国物价和影响物价的产品市场因素、货币市场因素和海外市场因素的波动均具有明显的局面转移特征;各种物价影响因素对物价的影响依赖于经济局面的变动,具有明显的非线性特点;模型所划分的两种局面均具有较强的持续性,局面间的转移具有非对称性;货币市场因素和结构性因素分别在两种局面中对物价具有相对较大的影响。
The use of the transfer model can depict the volatility characteristics of China’s price and its influencing factors, and can compare the changes of the impact of various factors on price fluctuations in different situations. From the research results, there are obvious characteristics of the transfer of prices in our country and the fluctuations of the market factors, the money market factors and the overseas market factors that influence the price. The influence of various price factors on the price depends on the change of economic situation, Obvious non-linear characteristics; the two situations divided by the model have strong persistence and the transfer between the two sides has the asymmetry; the money market factor and the structural factor have relatively larger price in two situations influences.