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2003年蓝筹股行情第一次使内地投资者认识到证券市场与经济周期的密切关系,以基金为代表的主流机构的良好业绩促使投资者习惯于试图从经济周期的演变中寻找证券市场的投资机会,从而分享经济增长的果实。但是随着2004年宏观调控的进行,机构投资者突然陷入一种整体迷茫之中,钢铁股的暴跌更使投资者深刻体会到行业周期的“骤然”改变带来的巨大影响。应该承认,当前中国经济还带有较为浓厚的计划色彩,投资者在选择投资标的的过程中除了遵循行业自身的发展规律,同时还应该重视国家对于经济全局的调控,后者有可能会导致行业周期的提前突变。2004年下半年的行情已经拉开序幕,它将面对“国九条”威力逐步淡化、加大直接融资比例成为既定方针、投资者信心空前低落、市场资金仍然趋紧的诸多现实。而宏观调控带来的行业发展前景的不确定性也阻扰了机构投资者在三季度各项数据出台之前大举介入市场。但是我们认为当大盘已经处在1400点下方的相对历史低位的时候,应该开始为新的一轮上涨行情作积极准备了,虽然行情的到来最早也要到三季度末。本文尝试从以下几个角度去把握未来行情的主流。
For the first time in the blue-chip market in 2003, mainland investors realized the close relationship between the securities market and the economic cycle. The good performance of the mainstream institutions represented by the fund prompted investors to become accustomed to finding investment opportunities in the securities market from the evolution of the business cycle , So as to share the fruits of economic growth. However, as the macroeconomic regulation and control started in 2004, institutional investors suddenly plunged into an overall confusion. The plunge in the steel stocks also made investors deeply understand the tremendous impact of the “sudden” change in the industry cycle. It should be admitted that the current Chinese economy also has a rather strong planning. In addition to following the industry’s own development rules, investors should also pay attention to the state’s regulation of the overall economy, which may lead to industry Early mutation of the cycle. Quotes in the second half of 2004 have already come to an end. It will face many realities such as the gradual dilution of the power of “nine” states, the increase in the proportion of direct financing as an established policy, the unprecedented decline in investor confidence and the tightening of market funds. The macro-control brought about by the uncertainty of the prospects for the development of the industry also hinder institutional investors in the third quarter before the introduction of various data involved in the market. However, we think we should start to make positive preparations for the new round of rally when the broader market is already at a relatively low level of 1400, although the market will have to come to the end of the third quarter as soon as possible. This article attempts to grasp the mainstream of the future market from the following perspectives.