美国与西方经济正处于周期的正常繁荣阶段。对于衰退何时来临,西方经济学家看法不一,主流观点认为,至今尚未看到衰退来临的迹象。今年美经济从繁荣转到低速增长的可能性较大,但也不完全排除出现衰退的可能性。布什至今尚没有一个明确的经济总政策,在举世瞩目的解决财政赤字问题上至今举棋不定,决心不大,并与联邦储备局的政策观点发生分歧。这对目前美国经济的稳步发展是一个令人不安的因素。 The United States and the western economy are in the normal cycle of prosperity. Western economists have mixed opinions about when the recession will come and the mainstream view is that we have not seen any signs of a recession so far. The U.S. economy is more likely to shift from prosperity to lower growth this year, but the possibility of a recession is not completely ruled out. As yet, Bush does not have a clear general economic policy and has so far been determined and resolute in resolving the world’s current problem of fiscal deficits. He is still divided on the policy perspective of the Federal Reserve. This is a disturbing factor for the steady development of the U.S. economy.