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商品分析与市场预测工作因涉及许多问题而难于掌握。尤其是市场和价格往往与其基本的影响因素和所考虑的条件不符。这一特殊情况在过去一年半左右的时间里已特别突出:尽管几种主要有色金属的需求有所改善,用户和定期存货不断减少,金属价格却没有随之而明显上升。也就是说:尽管基础条件正在好转,然而市场情况却丝毫没有显现出持久的良好响应。最近,设在华盛顿的世界银行对此特殊课题所完成的最新研究之一,题为“1984～1995年初级商品展望”涉及三十几种初级商品包括许多主要的金属和矿物的前景探讨。
Commodity analysis and market forecasting work is difficult to grasp due to many problems involved. In particular, markets and prices tend to be inconsistent with their underlying determinants and conditions under consideration. This particular case has been particularly prominent over the past year and a half or so: the price of metals has not risen significantly, despite the improvement in the demand of several major non-ferrous metals, the declining number of users and scheduled inventories. This means that, despite the fact that the basic conditions are improving, the market situation shows no lasting good response. Recently, one of the latest studies done by the World Bank in Washington on this particular topic, entitled “The Preliminary Commodities Outlook 1984-1995” covers the prospect of more than 30 primary commodities, including many major metals and minerals.