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贸易隐含碳排放对于一个国家实际排放量的估算非常关键。国内外学者对贸易中的隐含二氧化碳排放做了很多研究,发现其价值很大,中国的二氧化碳排放严重高估。本文使用最新的2007年区分加工贸易进口非竞争型的投入产出表重新测算了中国与主要贸易伙伴美国、日本、欧盟以及其他国家双边贸易中的隐含碳排放。结果显示,2007年中国因贸易产生的二氧化碳排放量只有4亿吨,远远低于目前的估计。2007年我国消费侧二氧化碳排放只下降了4亿吨,为56.28亿吨,按照百分比看,贸易转移碳排放只占生产侧排放的6.6%。因此,中国隐含碳排放量实际上远远没有那么大,不应再强调贸易转移对我国二氧化碳排放量的影响,而应该立足于我国自身的节能减排,大力发展低碳经济。
Implied carbon emissions from trade are crucial for estimating the actual emissions of a country. Scholars at home and abroad have done a lot of research on the implied carbon dioxide emissions in trade and found that they are of great value and China’s carbon dioxide emissions are seriously over-estimated. In this paper, we use the latest 2007 Non-Conformity Input-Output Table for Processing Imports to re-calculate the implicit carbon emissions from bilateral trade between China and its major trading partners, the United States, Japan, the EU and other countries. The results show that China’s carbon dioxide emissions from trade in 2007 was only 400 million tons, far below current estimates. In 2007, China’s carbon dioxide consumption on the consumer side only dropped by 400 million tons to 5.628 billion tons. In terms of percentage, the carbon emissions from trade transfer accounted for only 6.6% of the production-side emissions. Therefore, China’s implied carbon emissions are actually far less so. We should no longer emphasize the impact of trade transfers on our country’s carbon dioxide emissions. Instead, we should base ourselves on our own energy conservation and emission reduction and vigorously develop the low-carbon economy.