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自2015年6月以来,信贷增速已升至15%左右,同时M1增速也持续走高,2016年3月达22%。市场普遍认为,信贷超预期投放是年初M1增速进一步走高的主要原因,而资本市场动荡后货币投放扩大的所谓溢出效应也颇为引人关注。然而,统计数字反映的信贷增速并非真实的信贷增长,加上地方政府债务置换因素,实际信贷增速应该更高。近年来,我国企业杠杆率已然不低,信贷增速过快势必增加企业债务杠杆压力。在当前市场信贷需求明显回升和地方政府债务置换进一步推进的背景下,有必要警惕实际信贷增速
Since June 2015, credit growth has risen to around 15% while M1 growth has also continued to rise, up 22% in March 2016. Market generally believe that over-expected credit delivery is the main reason for the M1 growth to further increase at the beginning of the year, and the so-called spillover effect of monetary expansion after the capital market turmoil is quite interesting. However, the statistics show that credit growth is not real credit growth. Coupled with the replacement of local government debt, actual credit growth should be even higher. In recent years, the leverage of enterprises in our country is no longer low, and the rapid growth of credit is bound to increase the pressure on corporate debt. In the current market demand for credit picked up significantly and local government debt replacement to further promote the background, it is necessary to guard against the actual growth rate of credit