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近年来,非常规天然气已成为我国天然气供应的重要构成之一,在低油价的新常态下,中国油气行业面临究竟是继续低效益开发国内非常规气,还是加大进口海外天然气的现实抉择。为此,基于国内典型非常规气田的开发成本现状,采用净现金流量法,开展了典型非常规气田单井经济效益评价,构建了反映单井投资、累计产量、内部收益率3大关键指标的技术经济界限图版并与进口气价格进行对比,得出不同油价下我国非常规气效益开发的最优序列。研究结果表明:(1)在当前气价、投资、产量水平下,只有致密气藏“甜点区”可实现效益开发,煤层气藏、页岩气藏的内部收益率均低于基准收益率,有待于进一步降本增效;(2)当原油价格发生变化时,若油价为40美元/桶(1桶=0.159 m~3),国产致密气相比进口LNG效益更优,可优先开发,并加大LNG进口比例;(3)若油价为50美元/桶及以上时,国产非常规气相比进口LNG效益更优,应加大开发力度,平衡好国产气与进口气的供应比例关系,以实现效益最大化。
In recent years, unconventional natural gas has become one of the important components of China’s natural gas supply. Under the new norm of low oil prices, China’s oil and gas industry is faced with whether it continues to be a low-efficiency development of domestic unconventional gas, or whether it is a realistic choice for importing overseas natural gas. Therefore, based on the current status of development costs of typical unconventional gas fields in China, net cash flow method was used to evaluate the economic benefits of a single well in a typical unconventional gas field, and three key indicators reflecting single well investment, cumulative production, and internal rate of return were constructed. The technical and economic boundaries of the plate and the comparison with the price of imported gas, to obtain the optimal sequence of China’s unconventional gas efficiency under different oil prices. The research results show that: (1) Under the current gas price, investment, and output levels, only tight gas reservoirs and dessert zones can achieve profitable development. The internal rate of return of coalbed gas reservoirs and shale gas reservoirs is lower than the benchmark income. (2) When the price of crude oil changes, if the oil price is 40 US dollars per barrel (1 barrel = 0.159 m3), the domestic tight gas is better than the imported LNG and can be developed preferentially. , and increase the proportion of LNG imports; (3) If the oil price is 50 US dollars / barrel and above, the domestic unconventional gas is better than the imported LNG, and it is necessary to increase development efforts to balance the supply ratio of domestic gas and imported gas. To maximize benefits.