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交通需求历来被认为是社会经济活动所派生的需求,准确分析历史的交通增长与经济发展的相关关系,在社会经济发展预测的基础上,合理确定未来交通增长,是公路建设项目前期工作的重要部分。针对成渝高速公路交通量资料,结合社会经济发展,对建设期、运营期不同时段的弹性系数进行了分析,以期对新建高速公路项目的交通需求预测提供参考。实证分析表明,高速公路通道的交通经济弹性系数呈现典型的“抛物线”形态。
Traffic demand has always been regarded as a demand derived from socio-economic activities. It is necessary to accurately analyze the historical relationship between traffic growth and economic development. Based on the prediction of socio-economic development, reasonably determining future traffic growth is an important part of the preliminary work of highway construction projects section. According to the traffic data of Chengdu-Chongqing Expressway and the socio-economic development, the elastic coefficient at different periods of construction period and operation period are analyzed in order to provide reference for the traffic demand forecast of the new expressway project. The empirical analysis shows that the expressway economic elasticity coefficient of the expressway presents a typical “parabola” shape.