自新中国建立以来,中国经济上升及回落周期分别为2年和2.5年。自2010年第一季度GDP达到11.9%的高增长回落至今,时间周期已近两年半。同时,政策的宽松微调其实自2011年下半年已开启,2012年力度逐渐加大,对经济的传导作用逐渐显现。经济短期虽仍面临较大的去杠杆及去 Since the founding of new China, the cycle of economic rise and fall in China has been two years and 2.5 years respectively. Since the first quarter of 2010 GDP growth reached 11.9% down to the present time cycle of nearly two and a half years. In the meantime, the easing and fine-tuning of policies has actually started in the second half of 2011 and the intensity of the policy has been gradually increased in 2012, gradually showing its effect on the economy. Although the economy is still facing a large short-term de-leveraging and go