由于河川径流具有变化剧烈、波动频繁的特点,采用常规水文预报方法的预测效果较差。为此引进灰色拓扑方法,在优化原始GM(1,1)模型的基础上,通过改进拓扑预测的矛盾点筛选方法,建立了优化的灰色拓扑预测模型群,对梨园河流域的实测年径流序列进行模拟和预测,发现所建模型的拟合曲线与实测序列的变化趋势一致,比传统的灰色拓扑方法具有更高的精度。结果表明,改进的灰色拓扑模型能够有效克服振荡序列的非线性影响,可作为研究区域的径流预报和水资源分析的参考依据。 Due to the drastic changes and frequent fluctuations of river runoff, the prediction effect of conventional hydrological forecasting methods is poor. Based on the optimization of the original GM (1,1) model and the contradiction point screening method of topological prediction, an optimized gray topological prediction model group is established, and the actual annual runoff series of Liyuan River Basin The results show that the fitted curve of the model is consistent with the trend of the measured sequence, and has higher accuracy than the traditional gray topology method. The results show that the improved gray topological model can effectively overcome the nonlinear effect of the oscillation sequence and can be used as a reference for the runoff prediction and water resources analysis in the study area.