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目前的含水率预测模型均是引用信息、经济等其他领域的相关增长数学模型,而在国内外石油科技论文中并未见到有关含水率预测模型的理论推导,因此目前的含水率预测模型缺乏理论依据,对相关参数物理内涵的解释也不清晰。该文针对上述问题,从相对渗透率曲线和物质平衡原理出发,推导出新型含水率预测模型。新型含水率预测模型揭示了含水上升规律相应影响因素和影响规律,结合胜坨油田实际生产资料验证了新模型的实用性和有效性,且精度高于常用的Logistic模型及Goempertz模型。该文对含水上升规律的深层次理论研究具有一定的参考价值,并给矿场实际生产调剖堵水和化学驱等控水措施方面提供了相关理论依据。
The current water content prediction models are all related mathematical models of growth in other fields such as information and economy. However, no theoretical derivation of water content prediction models is found in domestic and overseas petroleum scientific papers. Therefore, the current water content prediction models are lacking Theoretical basis, the interpretation of the physical connotation of the relevant parameters is not clear. In view of the above problems, this paper deduces a new prediction model of water content from the relative permeability curve and material balance principle. The new model of predicting water cut reveals the corresponding influencing factors and influencing rules of water cut rising law. Combining with the actual production data of Shengtuo Oilfield, the practicality and validity of the new model are verified, and the precision is higher than the commonly used Logistic model and Goempertz model. This article has certain reference value to the deep theoretical research of the law of rising water content, and provides the relevant theoretical basis for the actual production of water control measures such as water control and chemical flooding.