论文部分内容阅读
据日本三井物产公司预测,西方国家明年的铝产量约为1494.9万吨,仅比今年的增长0.4%,同时从俄罗斯等目的进口量要下降12%,约为70万吨。总供应量为1564.9万吨,比去年的减少0.2%。可是西方国家明年对铝的需求量为1591.6万吨,即比今年的增长3.4%。因此,短缺26.6万吨,而今年却过剩30.1万吨。另外,据世界著名的咨询公司——纽约的斯帕克特公司和伦敦的安东尼·伯德公司的预测,近3年内世界原铝新增加的电解能力不多,故到1996年,铝将出现明显的供不应求的局面,铝价将大幅度上涨。目前,国际市场上原铝价格过低,应升到1650美元/吨,并保持一段较长的时间,才能激发企业扩大生产能力的积极性。安东尼·伯德公司估计,在1900～2003年期间,世界原铝消费量的年平均增长率与生产力的年平均上升率同步,都大体为
According to Japan’s Mitsui & Co. predicts that next year’s aluminum production in Western countries is about 14.949 million tons, an increase of only 0.4% this year, while imports from Russia and other purposes to decline 12% to about 700,000 tons. The total supply was 15,649,000 tons, a decrease of 0.2% over the previous year. However, the demand of western countries for aluminum next year is 15.916 million tons, an increase of 3.4% over this year. As a result, the country is in short supply of 266,000 tons, while this year there is an excess of 301,000 tons. In addition, according to the predictions of world-renowned consulting firms - New York-based Sparket Company and London-based Anton Bird, the newly increased primary electrolysis capacity of the world aluminum in the past three years is small, by 1996 aluminum will be conspicuous In short supply, aluminum prices will rise sharply. At present, the price of primary aluminum on the international market is too low, should rise to 1,650 US dollars / ton, and maintain a long period of time, can stimulate the enthusiasm of enterprises to expand production capacity. Anthony Byrd estimated that between 1900 and 2003, the world average annual growth rate of primary aluminum consumption and productivity of the average annual rate of increase are generally