将过度自信系数引入传统供应链系统VMI模型之中,探讨随机需求下供应商的过度自信程度对零售商和供应链系统产生影响的机理;指出当市场需求出现有利信号(不利信号)时,供应商过度自信有利于(不利于)零售商利润的越高;并分别在成本信息对称和不对称两种情形下设计了基于数量折扣的VMI协调契约模型;最后,结合算例对过度自信系数进行敏感性分析,并验证了结论的有效性。 To introduce the overconfidence coefficient into the VMI model of traditional supply chain system, and to explore the mechanism that the suppliers’ overconfidence influence the retailers and the supply chain system under the random demand; and to point out that when there is a favorable signal (unfavorable signal) in the market demand, the supply The overconfidence of retailers is in favor of (not conducive to) the higher profit of retailers. The VMI coordination contract model based on quantity discount is designed under symmetric and asymmetric cost information respectively. Finally, the excess confidence coefficient Sensitivity analysis, and verify the validity of the conclusion.