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在元件强度和外载的分布参数未知的情况下，本文提出利用已有试验和专家经验采用模糊数对这些未知参数进行定量描述，并给出基于可靠度指标和基于失效概率的两种元件的可靠性度量指标估计方法。比较这两种指标的结果表明，对于正态型的分布和隶属函数，基于失效概率的元件可靠性度量指标更能反映参数模糊性对元件的安全程度的影响。本文提出的方法还可以推广应用于结构系统，从而给出结构系统诸分布参数为模糊数时的可靠性度量指标估计方法。
In the case of unknown component strength and distribution parameter of external load, this paper proposes the quantitative description of these unknown parameters by using the existing test and expert experience, and gives the quantitative analysis of these unknown parameters based on the reliability index and the failure probability based on Reliability Metrics Estimation Methods. Comparing the two indexes shows that for the normal distribution and membership function, the component reliability index based on the failure probability can better reflect the influence of parameter ambiguity on the component safety. The method proposed in this paper can also be extended to the structural system, and the method to estimate the reliability of the structural system is given when the distribution parameters of the structural system are fuzzy numbers.