随着城市化速度不断加快,交通污染问题越来越严重,已经影响到人们的正常生活。如何制定交通政策,营造健康无污染的城市环境是实现可持续发展的必然要求。本文考虑到交通系统结构复杂,变量众多,在充分分析各个变量因果关系的基础上,建立了城市绿色交通系统动力学模型。以上海市为例进行仿真,发现机动车保有量的增长是城市交通污染气体排放的主要原因。最后提出城市绿色交通发展模式合理化建议。 With the speeding up of urbanization, the problem of traffic pollution is more and more serious, which has already affected people’s normal life. How to formulate the transportation policy and create a healthy and pollution-free urban environment are the necessary requirements to achieve sustainable development. In this paper, taking into account the complex structure of traffic systems, many variables, in full analysis of the causal relationship between the various variables based on the establishment of urban green transport system dynamics model. Taking Shanghai as an example, it is found that the increase of vehicle ownership is the main reason for urban traffic pollution gas emission. Finally, put forward the rationalization suggestion of urban green transportation development mode.