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根据荆州市 1 980～ 1 998年共 1 9年棉铃虫发生情况、棉花生育指标的系统调查数据以及有关气象资料 ,在相关分析的基础上 ,采用模糊数学方法 ,定量地描述了棉铃虫主害代发生量与上代高峰卵量、7月 1 5日青铃及 4月下旬至 7月均温之间的关系 ,揭示了江汉平原棉区棉铃虫主害代的发生规律 ,为其防治提供了理论根据。同时 ,运用模糊数学区间权重综合评判法对主害代发生程度进行了预测预报的研究 ,拟合率达 1 0 0 % ,预报1 999年荆州和天门两地 ,均与实际相符
According to the occurrence of cotton bollworm from 19 980 to 1998 in Jingzhou City, the systematic survey data of cotton growth indices and the related meteorological data, based on the correlation analysis, fuzzy mathematics was used to quantitatively describe the main symptoms of cotton bollworm The relationship between the amount of generation and the peak egg size in the previous generation, the blue bell in July 15 and the average temperature in late April to July in July revealed the occurrence of the main generation of cotton bollworm in the cotton area of Jianghan Plain and provided a Theoretical basis. At the same time, the fuzzy mathematics interval weight comprehensive evaluation method was used to predict the degree of occurrence of the main damage generation. The fitting rate was 100%. Both Jingzhou and Tianmen were predicted to be consistent with the actual situation in 1999