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根据1983~2011年中国9个大豆主产省份的面板数据,基于预期相对收益,运用扩展的Nerlove供给反应模型对中国大豆的供给反应弹性进行了实证分析。结果表明:(1)大豆面积和产量的供给弹性对大豆的相对收益变化的反应程度要强于对绝对收益的反应;(2)大豆的主要替代作物为玉米、水稻和花生,大豆与玉米、水稻和花生的相对收益每降低1%,则下期大豆播种面积分别下降0.123%、0.128%和0.084%,下期大豆产量分别降低0.136%、0.155%和0.167%,长期的大豆播种面积分别减少0.462%、0.389%和0.292%,长期的大豆产量分别降低0.302%、0.366%和0.415%;(3)越是以大豆收入作为主要农业收入来源的地区,对于大豆相对收益的变化反应越敏感,供给反应弹性越大。未来在制定目标价格的过程中,为保障豆农收入和主产区大豆的长期有序生产,不仅要考虑大豆价格的绝对变化,更要兼顾主产区大豆与主要替代作物的相对收益关系。
Based on the panel data of 9 main soybean producing provinces in China from 1983 to 2011, this paper empirically analyzes the elasticity of supply response in China using the extended Nerlove supply response model based on expected relative returns. The results showed that: (1) the supply elasticity of soybean area and yield had a stronger response to the relative return change of soybean than to the absolute return; (2) The main alternative crops of soybean were corn, rice and peanut, soybean and corn, rice And soybean peanut decreased by 0.123%, 0.128% and 0.084% respectively for each 1% reduction in the relative profit of peanut, soybean yield decreased 0.136%, 0.155% and 0.167% respectively in the next period, while the long-term soybean acreage decreased by 0.462% 0.389% and 0.292%, respectively, and the long-term soybean yield decreased by 0.302%, 0.366% and 0.415% respectively; (3) The more areas where soybean income was the main source of agricultural income, the more responsive the changes in relative soybean yields were, The bigger In the future, in order to ensure the income of soybean farmers and the long-term orderly production of soybeans in the main producing areas, we must consider not only the absolute changes of soybean prices, but also the relative returns of soybeans and major alternative crops in the main producing areas.