论文部分内容阅读
前几年实行的财政政策中 ,企业税费负担增长过快抑制投资需求与增发国债扩大投资需求相互抵消 ;发行国债的增速在下降 ,还本付息比例在上升 ,国债发行扩大投资的边际效用在递减 ;国债主要投资于短期增加就业和拉动增长的基础项目上 ,其增长和就业连续性较弱。而货币政策方面 ,降低利率和存款准备金率以及公开市场业务操作等总量性的政策 ,对扩大贷款 ,特别是对推动增长和增加就业最有用的中小企业的放款 ,几乎没有作用。贷存比和对中小企业的贷款持续下降和相对减少。因此 ,需要从行政取向国债为主的财政政策和总量性的货币政策 ,转向市场取向刺激社会投资的财政政策和体制及结构性的货币政策。减少税费负担 ,实行投资税收抵扣制 ,对积极为中小企业贷款的银行给予税收优惠 ;大力发展社会资本的中小银行 ,同时鼓励民间中小企业信贷担保公司的发展 ,放宽资产抵押、担保和信用贷款的一些政策 ,调整银行呆坏账准备金的使用结构 ,为中小企业贷款服务。如果财政政策和货币政策转型 ,则在未来的三四年中 ,失业率可以从目前的年 1 0 % -1 1 %下降到 5% -6% ,国内消费增长率从目前的 8.5%左右提高到年 1 2 % -1 3 % ,消费物价走出持续低迷 ,并且GDP每年以 8%的速度再增长三到四年。
In the fiscal policies implemented a few years ago, the tax burden on enterprises increased too fast to curb the demand for investment to offset the investment demand for additional treasury bonds; the growth rate of treasury bonds declined while the debt service ratio was on the rise. Utility diminishes; national debt mainly invests in basic projects that increase employment and stimulate growth in the short run, with weak growth and employment continuity. In terms of monetary policy, policies such as reducing the interest rates and the deposit reserve ratio and aggregating the operations in the open market are almost ineffective in boosting loans, especially for SMEs that are most useful for boosting growth and employment. Loan to deposit ratio and loans to SMEs continued to decline and relative decrease. Therefore, it is necessary to shift from the financial policy of administrative oriented treasury bonds and the aggregate monetary policy to the market-oriented fiscal policy and system of stimulating social investment and the structural monetary policy. Reduce tax burden, implement tax deductibility of investment, give preferential tax treatment to banks that actively provide loans to small and medium-sized enterprises, develop small and medium-sized banks with social capital while encouraging the development of private credit guarantee companies for small and medium-sized enterprises, relax asset mortgages, guarantee and credit Some policies of loans, adjust the use structure of the bank’s bad debt reserve, and serve SME loans. If the fiscal and monetary policies are to be transformed, the jobless rate will fall from 10% -1 1% to 5% -6% in the next three to four years. The domestic consumption growth rate will increase from the current 8.5% From 12% to 13% of the year, the consumer price went out of downturn and GDP grew at an annual rate of 8% for another three to four years.