论文部分内容阅读
学界对我国当前的宏观经济形势形成了悲观和乐观两种不同的观点。基于结构红利和改革红利的考虑,我们认为当前中国经济不会陷入崩溃或萧条的境地,而是会平稳地进入“新常态”。在“新常态”下,我国的经济增长目标是“中高速”增长,具体表现为“十三五”期间6.5—7%的增长目标。我们从出口、投资和消费这三个拉动经济增长的动力方面进行考虑,通过对三者未来变动趋势的分析,论证了中高速增长的可实现性。实现中高速增长需要政府部门引导经济结构调整、推动经济体制改革、促进经济增长方式转变以及制定双向型的对外开放战略。
The academic community has formed two different views of pessimism and optimism about the current macro-economic situation in our country. Based on the structural dividend and the reform dividend, we think that at present the Chinese economy will not fall into a situation of collapse or depression, but will smoothly enter the “new normal.” Under “new normal ”, our country’s economic growth goal is “medium and high speed ” growth, concrete performance is “6.5% growth target during the” 13th Five-Year "period. We consider the impetus of economic growth from the three export, investment and consumption aspects. Through the analysis of the future trend of the three changes, we demonstrate the feasibility of medium and high-speed growth. To achieve medium-and-high-speed growth requires government departments to guide the readjustment of the economic structure, promote the reform of the economic system, promote the transformation of the economic growth mode, and formulate a two-way strategy of opening up to the outside world.