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大型复杂装备研制项目高风险与参研单位多的特点使得研制过程中风险传导时有发生。针对风险传导要素风险源的识别问题,提出了一种基于关联规则(AR)与决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)的风险源识别方法。该方法从数据挖掘的角度,先求解出风险类型与风险因素的关联规则,再求解出风险源之间的影响程度,最后通过DEMATEL得到各风险源相关参数。并且对某参研单位数据库中某阶段的数据用此方法完成了风险源的识别,识别结果显示了各风险类型对应的风险源以及易导致研制项目发生风险传导的风险源。
Large-scale complex equipment development project with a high risk of participating units and more features make the risk of conducting the development process occurs from time to time. In order to identify the risk sources of risk transmission, a risk source identification method based on association rules (AR) and decision laboratory analysis (DEMATEL) is proposed. From the perspective of data mining, this method first solves the association rules between risk types and risk factors, then solves the influence degree between risk sources, and finally obtains the relevant parameters of risk sources through DEMATEL. And the data of a certain stage in a research institute database is used to identify the source of risk. The identification results show the source of risk corresponding to each type of risk and the source of risk that leads to the risk transmission of the developed project.