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竞争与差异化对多代产品的扩散有影响作用,从而限制了基本的多代产品扩散模型应用。通过构建反映竞争的潜在采用者变化函数,并且根据产品差异化特性定义不同的影响系数,对基本多代产品扩散模型做出修正,得到考虑竞争和差异化的多代产品扩散模型。同时,分析了非线性最小二乘法和遗传算法的特点,提出遗传算法与非线性最小二乘法相结合的两步参数估计方法。以我国汽车产品细分市场之一的微型客车产品为实例,对技术创新引发的产品更新换代——平头微型客车和凸头微型客车进行实证研究,将多代产品的竞争和差异化因素作为变量融入扩散模型,分析微型客车产品的扩散规律。研究结论表明,加入竞争与差异化因素后,多代产品扩散模型在解释能力和预测能力上均优于基本模型,能够为我国汽车产品扩散进程提供策略参考。
Competition and differentiation have an impact on the proliferation of multigenerational products, thus limiting the application of the basic multigenerational product diffusion model. By constructing a potential adopter change function that reflects the competition and defining different influence coefficients according to the product differentiation characteristics, the diffusion model of the basic multi-generational products is amended to obtain a multi-generational product diffusion model considering competition and differentiation. At the same time, the characteristics of nonlinear least square method and genetic algorithm are analyzed. A two-step parameter estimation method based on genetic algorithm and nonlinear least square method is proposed. Taking the mini-bus products, one of the automobile market in our country, as an example, this paper conducts an empirical research on product innovation caused by technological innovation, such as flathead minibus and convex minibus. Taking the competition and differentiation factors of multiple generations as variables Into the diffusion model, analysis of the proliferation of micro-bus products. The research results show that, after adding the factors of competition and differentiation, the multi-generational product diffusion model is better than the basic model in explaining ability and predictive ability, which can provide strategic reference for the diffusion process of automotive products in our country.